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The CEPR Committee’s task is significantly different from that of the NBER.
The euro area groups together a set of different countries.
Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used.
As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in 1980 to the third quarter in 1982 as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning.
As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters).
The NBER measures five factors to define when a recession is occurring. That's everything produced businesses and individuals in the United States.
Sometimes growth will be negative then turn positive in the next quarter.
Other times the Bureau of Economic Analysis might revise the GDP estimate in its next report.
These are the indicators to watch if you want to know when the economy is in a recession. It's called real because the effects of inflation are stripped out.
When the real GDP growth rate turns negative, it could be a recession.
The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.